Forget Earth — NASA Wants to Protect the Moon from Asteroid 2024 YR4

While most asteroid defense stories focus on saving planet Earth, NASA is now considering a bold mission to safeguard the Moon. The reason? A newly discovered space rock, Asteroid 2024 YR4, carries a 4% chance of colliding with the Moon in 2032. If that happens, the impact could unleash a dangerous cloud of debris, threatening satellites, the International Space Station, and even long-term lunar exploration plans.

The Discovery of Asteroid 2024 YR4

First spotted in late 2024, Asteroid 2024 YR4 initially raised alarms because its orbit suggested a small possibility of striking Earth. Early calculations even pushed the probability up to 3%. Later refinements ruled out an Earth impact but revealed another unsettling fact — the Moon could be in the crosshairs. Measuring about 60 meters (200 feet) across, it’s not a “planet killer,” but its destructive power should not be underestimated.

Why the Moon Matters More Than You Think

An asteroid strike on the lunar surface would create a spectacular event visible from Earth. People might expect a once-in-millennia meteor show. But scientists warn that the consequences go far beyond fireworks in the sky. With no atmosphere, the Moon would allow debris from the collision to escape freely into space. Some fragments would drift toward Earth, lighting up as meteors, but countless others would spread through the Earth-Moon system, posing a long-term threat to satellites, space telescopes like JWST, and spacecraft in low Earth orbit.

NASA’s Dilemma: Deflect or Destroy?

Traditionally, planetary defense focuses on deflecting asteroids, nudging them away from hazardous paths. But in this case, NASA researchers led by Brent Barbee at Goddard Space Flight Center suggest that strategy may not be practical. Why? Timing, uncertainty, and risk:

• Too risky to push it toward Earth: A small miscalculation could redirect the rock into our planet’s path.
• Limited preparation time: Deflection often requires decades of lead time. With 2024 YR4, that luxury doesn’t exist.
• Unknown composition: Successful deflection depends on knowing an asteroid’s mass and structure. That data may not be available before decisive action is needed.

Instead, the team is exploring a more dramatic approach — detonating the asteroid with a nuclear device or kinetic impactor. While this sounds like science fiction, it may be the safest way to prevent widespread orbital debris.

The 2028 Close Encounter

All eyes are now on 2028, when Asteroid 2024 YR4 will pass near Earth and the Moon without risk of collision. This flyby will allow astronomers to study its orbit more accurately. If the Moon impact probability increases, NASA could launch a mission while the asteroid is still relatively accessible — beyond Mars but within range of current propulsion technology. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is also scheduled to attempt early detection in 2026 to refine orbital predictions even further.

Possible Recon Missions

NASA may also repurpose ongoing spacecraft, such as Psyche or OSIRIS-APEX, to conduct reconnaissance. These missions could confirm whether 2024 YR4 poses a real danger years before the 2028 pass. Having precise data on the asteroid’s size and composition could guide the decision between deflection and destruction.

Who Will Pay the Bill?

Even if the science is clear, the politics and funding may not be. Since the main risk involves satellites and space infrastructure — much of which is privately owned — the question of who funds such a mission is open. Should governments cover the cost, or should private satellite operators contribute? The debate mirrors the themes in films like *Don’t Look Up* — when disaster looms, who takes responsibility?

Final Thoughts: Saving the Moon, Protecting the Future

The idea of blowing up an asteroid to save the Moon might sound like Hollywood fiction, but it reflects a growing reality: space defense is becoming essential. Whether NASA chooses to deflect or destroy, decisions made in the next few years could determine the safety of satellites, space stations, and future human missions to the Moon. For now, the world waits on the next orbital measurements — and the possibility of the most dramatic meteor shower in human history.