Gulf Stock Markets Close Mixed as Investors Await Fed’s Jackson Hole Speech

August 21, 2025 – Stock markets across the Gulf region ended Thursday on a mixed note, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. Higher oil prices provided some support, yet uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy and global economic conditions kept traders on edge.

Oil Prices Provide Some Support

Crude oil, the lifeline of Gulf economies, ticked upward with Brent crude rising 0.3% to $67.07 a barrel by midday GMT. The uptick was driven by steady U.S. demand signals and ongoing doubts about a resolution to the war in Ukraine. Analysts believe that as long as oil remains above $65, Gulf markets may continue to find resilience even in volatile trading sessions.

Qatar Stocks Reverse Early Losses

The Qatari benchmark index (QSI) managed to recover from early declines, closing higher by 0.3%. Gains were broad-based, led by Qatar Islamic Bank (+1.3%) and Qatar Gas Transport (+1.2%). However, despite the day’s recovery, the index recorded its first weekly drop after an impressive eight-week winning streak, raising questions about whether momentum can be sustained in the weeks ahead.

Dubai Market Stays Flat with Mild Gains

In Dubai, the main stock index inched up by 0.1%. The rise was supported by Salik (+1.0%) and the Dubai Financial Market (+3.1%). However, not all stocks shared in the gains—Emaar Properties, a key blue-chip developer, slipped 0.7%, while Gulf Navigation fell 1.4%. Analysts at XTB MENA highlighted that Dubai’s market continues to consolidate after a strong rally. If resistance near the 6,200 level cannot be breached, a near-term correction remains possible.

Saudi Stocks Under Pressure

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index (TASI) edged down 0.1%, dragged by losses across multiple sectors. Saudi Awwal Bank tumbled 3.7%, while state energy giant Saudi Aramco shed 0.7%. Adding to the pressure, recent data revealed that Saudi crude exports fell to a three-month low in June, reflecting global demand shifts and internal supply strategies.

Abu Dhabi Market Sees Mixed Moves

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s index ended slightly lower, with First Abu Dhabi Bank (-0.5%) and Lulu Retail (-1.6%) weighing on the market. On a positive note, Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) rose 0.9% after announcing it had secured an 8.5 billion dirham ($2.3 billion) term loan to strengthen liquidity and support growth initiatives. The move signals confidence in the company’s long-term strategy despite regional market headwinds.

Focus on Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium

All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference, running from Thursday to Saturday. Investors across the Gulf are eagerly awaiting Powell’s speech on Friday, which could provide crucial signals about the Fed’s policy direction. Speculation is mounting over a potential interest rate cut as early as next month, a decision that could significantly influence global financial flows and Gulf investment strategies.

Why U.S. Policy Matters for Gulf Economies

The Gulf region closely tracks U.S. monetary policy because most of its currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar. Any move by the Fed, especially regarding interest rates, directly impacts capital flows, investment appetite, and liquidity conditions in Gulf markets. A dovish stance from Powell could encourage more inflows into regional equities, while a hawkish tone may tighten conditions.

Egypt Market Struggles

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip EGX30 index recorded its second consecutive decline, losing 0.3%. Leading the drop were Commercial International Bank (-0.5%) and Arabian Cement (-2.5%). Analysts warn that ongoing currency challenges and inflationary pressures may continue to weigh on investor sentiment in Cairo’s market.

Investor Outlook: Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Watch

Market participants across the Middle East remain cautious in the short term. The combination of oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty over the Fed’s next steps is keeping traders defensive. However, strong fundamentals in the Gulf, particularly fiscal support from oil revenues and government-backed growth projects, provide a solid foundation for long-term stability.

With Powell’s Jackson Hole speech set to be the key event of the week, Gulf markets are expected to remain in a wait-and-see mode. Any hint of a rate cut could trigger renewed optimism, while a hawkish surprise may lead to short-term corrections across the region.

Conclusion

The Gulf bourses ended mixed on Thursday, balancing modest oil gains with investor caution ahead of the Fed’s symposium. Qatar and Dubai managed slight advances, Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi slipped, and Egypt continued to struggle. The next major move for regional markets will largely depend on the policy signals coming out of Jackson Hole, making Powell’s remarks one of the most closely watched events for global investors this week.